Assessment of precipitation and temperature for the future period on the southern shores of the Caspian Sea based on the development and generalization of the NCP index

Document Type : Original Article


1 Master student of Climatology, Golestan University

2 Associate Professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan



Researchers in various fields have given particular attention to the variability of temperature and precipitation components and the role of climate change as well as the effect of large-scale climate indicators in recent years. The North Caspian Sea (NCP) index is one of the most important regional-scale indicators that operates well in the East Atlantic with the NAO index. This study used three categories of data, including temperature and precipitation components, and reanalyzed geopotential altitude data of 500 hPa and geopotential altitude data of 500 hPa based on 14 climatic models. In the first stage, the NCP index was identified for future periods of development and generalization and then its positive and negative phases for the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. As well as maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation rates, and number of precipitation days were displayed for future downscaling periods. Based on the forecasts for the positive and negative phases of this index, it was determined that for the next period 2060-2041, both the maximum and minimum temperatures will increase. Furthermore, the rate and number of rainy days in the future period will be more irregular than the temperature component compared to the base period. In the RCP4.5 scenario in both phases, it was found that the average number of rainy days will decline and, in both phases, rainfall rates will increase in stations that are near the Caspian Sea. In the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of rainy days in the study area will decrease by about 5 days in the positive phase and increase by 4 days in the negative phase compared to the base period.


  1. Çağlar, F., Yetemen, O., Pan Chun, K., and Lutfi Sen, O. (2021, April). Applicability of the North Sea Caspian Pattern as an indicator of the Euro-Mediterranean Climate Variability. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (pp. EGU21-8729).
  2. López-Moreno, J.I., and Vicente-Serrano, S.M. (2008). Positive and negative phases of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and drought occurrence over Europe: a multitemporal-scale approach. Journal of Climate, 21(6), 1220-1243.
  3. Folland, C.K., Knight, J., Linderholm, H.W., Fereday, D., Ineson, S., and Hurrell, J.W. (2009). The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, Present, and Future, Journal of Climate, 22(5), 1082-1103. Retrieved Jan 24, 2021, from
  4. Folland, C.K., Knight, J., Linderholm, H.W., Fereday, D., Ineson, S., and Hurrell, J.W. (2009). The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, Present, and Future, Journal of Climate, 22(5), 1082-1103. Retrieved Jan 24, 2021, from /view/journals/clim/22/5/2008jcli2459.1.xml
  5. Rousi, E., Anagnostopoulou, C., Tolika, K., Maheras, P., and Bloutsos, A. (2013). ECHAM5/MPI General Circulation Model Simulations of Teleconnection Indices Over Europe. In Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics (pp. 709-715). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  6. Beranová, R., and Kyselý, J. (2013). Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica, 57(1), 138-153.
  7. Davey, M.K., Brookshaw, A., and Ineson, S. (2014). The probability of the impact of ENSO on precipitation and near-surface temperature. Climate Risk Management, 1, 5-24.
  8. Wise, E.K., Wrzesien, M.L., Dannenberg, M.P., and McGinnis, D.L. (2015). Cool-season precipitation patterns associated with teleconnection interactions in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54(2), 494-505.
  9. Cleary, D.M., Wynn, J.G., Ionita, M., Forray, F.L., and Onac, B.P. (2017). Evidence of long-term NAO influence on East-Central Europe winter precipitation from a guano-derived δ15N record. Scientific reports, 7(1), 14095.
  10. Riaz, Syed M.F., Iqbal, M.J., Hameed, Sultan (1 January 2017). "Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter climate of Germany". Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 69 (1): 1406263. DOI:10.1080/16000870.2017.1406263.
  11. Luo, D., Chen, X., and Feldstein, S.B. (2018). Linear and nonlinear dynamics of North Atlantic Oscillations: A new thinking of symmetry breaking. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(6), 1955-1977.
  12. Bahrami, F., Saadatabadi, A.R., Meshkatee, A.H., and Kamali, G. (2019). The Impact of ENSO Phase Transition on the Atmospheric Circulation, Precipitation and Temperature in the Middle East Autumn. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1-15.
  13. Ermakova, T.S., Aniskina, O.G., Statnaia, I.A. et al.(2019). Simulation of the ENSO influence on the extra-tropical middle atmosphere. Earth Planets Space 71, 8
  14. Rousi, E., Rust, H.W., Ulbrich, U., and Anagnostopoulou, C. (2020). Implications of winter NAO flavors on present and future European climate. Climate, 8(1), 13.
  15. Hamouda, M.E., Pasquero, C. and Tziperman, E. (2021). Decoupling of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in a warmer climate.  Clim. Chang. /10.1038/s41558-020-00966-8
  16. Kutiel, H., and Benaroch, Y. (2002). North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP)–an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 71(1), 17-28.
  17. Kutiel, H., and Türkeş, M. (2005). New evidence for the role of the North Sea—Caspian Pattern on the temperature and precipitation regimes in continental central Turkey. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 87(4), 501-513.
  18. Gündüz, M., and Özsoy, E. (2005). Effects of the North Sea Caspian pattern on surface fluxes of Euro‐Asian‐ Mediterranean seas. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(21).
  19. Tatli, H. (2007). Synchronization between the North Sea–Caspian pattern (NCP) and surface air temperatures in NCEP. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 27(9), 1171-1187.
  20. Ghasemi, A.R., and Khalili, D. (2008). The effect of the North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) on winter temperatures in Iran. Theoretical and applied climatology, 92(1), 59-74.
  21. Kutiel, H. (2010). A review on the impact of the North Sea–Caspian Pattern (NCP) on temperature and precipitation regimes in the Middle East. In Survival and Sustainability (pp. 1301-1312). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  22. Brunetti, M., and Kutiel, H. (2011). The relevance of the North-Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP) in explaining temperature variability in Europe and the Mediterranean. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(10), 2881-2888.
  23. Masoodian, S.A., and Darand, M. (2013). The relation between two patterns North Sea–Caspian pattern NCP) and East Europe–Northeast Iran ENEI) with number of extreme cold temperatures in Iran during cold seasons. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 392), 171-186.
  24. Ghavidel Rahimi, Y., Farajzadeh Asl, M., and Kakapor, S. (2014). Investigation on North Sea-Caspian Teleconnection Pattern Effect on Autumn Rainfall Fluctuations in West and Northwest Regions of Iran. Geography and Planning, 18(49), 217-230.
  25. Gündüz, M., Sözer, A., Tutsak, E., and Özsoy, E. (2015). Water transport variability in the aegean sea and its connection with north sea caspian pattern ncp). Ordu Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 51), 1-8.
  26. Ghanghermeh, A., Roshan, G., and Al-Yahyai, S. (2015). The influence of Atlantic-Eurasian teleconnection patterns on temperature regimes in South Caspian Sea coastal areas: a study of Golestan Province, North Iran. Pollution, 1(1), 67-83.
  27. Ghavidel, R.Y., Farajzadeh, A.M., and Hatami, Z.D. (2016). The Role of North Caspian Sea Pattern (NCP) Teleconnection in Maximum Temperatures Oscillation in Iran.
  28. Sezen, C., and Partal, T. (2017). The Effects of North Sea Caspian Pattern Index on the Temperature and Precipitation Regime in the Aegean Region of Turkey. International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering.  11(5), 413-417.
  29. Sezen, C., and Partal, T. (2017). The relation of North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian pattern (NCP) with climate variables in Mediterranean region of Turkey. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics, (1), 366-371.
  30. Tosunoglu, F., Can, I., and Kahya, E. (2018). Evaluation of spatial and temporal relationships between large‐scale atmospheric oscillations and
    meteorological drought indexes in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 38(12), 4579-4596.
  31. Sezen, C., and Partal, T. (2019). The impacts of Arctic oscillation and the North Sea Caspian pattern on the temperature and precipitation regime in Turkey. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131(6), 1677-1696.
  32. Araghi, A., Martinez, C.J., Adamowski, J., and Olesen, J.E. (2019). Associations between large-scale climate oscillations and land surface phenology in Iran. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 278, 107682.
  33. Moghbel, M. (2020). Evaluation of the human thermal discomfort index in different phases of North-Caspian Sea Patterns (NCP) in southern coasts of Caspian Sea, Iran. Climate Change Research, 1(4), 1-9.