Assess the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature using AR4 models (Case Study: Gharasoo Basin of Kermanshah province)

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Geography,Faculty of Management, Police University, Tehran

2 graduated of water engineering Isfahan university



Industrial growth, deforestation and destruction of the environment increased the greenhouse gases in recent decades. Increase the concentration of greenhouse gases lead to rise in temperature of the earth's atmosphere globally which called global warming. These effects not only change the temperature of the atmosphere, but also have influence on other climatic parameters which called climate change. This study investigated the effects of climate change on the basin Gharasoo in periods of 30 years (2044-2015) and (20740245) has been done. 10 GCM models set of models AR4 to study climate change used in this study. 6 stations for temperature changes And 9 stations were chosen for the study precipitation changes. Based on the performance of GCM to forecast temperature and, precipitation. The weighting models based on their weight is defined the average pattern for all these models. And the emission scenarios A2 and B1, daily temperature and precipitation data were generated using LARS-WG model. Then, using the IDW method for regional meteorological data were converted. Results showed that among the ten GCM models weighted average model Model IPSL CM4.0 greatest accuracy in estimated temperature and GISS-ER models the most accurate estimated rainfall in the entire Gharasoo basin showed. Also the results related to changes in temperature and precipitation showed the summer and spring, respectively, the highest temperature rise in the near future two terms (2044-2015) and far future (2074-2045) for both A2 and B2, respectively. And winter had the highest decrease precipitation.


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