مطالعه عددی خردفیزیک یک سامانه‌ همرفتی میان‌مقیاس منجر به رخدادهای سیل در غرب و جنوب غرب ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد، گروه فیزیک فضا، مؤسسه ژئوفیزیک دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه فیزیک فضا، مؤسسه ژئوفیزیک دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.30488/ccr.2022.352592.1082

چکیده

در این پژوهش، عملکرد مدل عددی WRF در شبیه­سازی پارامترهای خردفیزیکیِ یک سامانۀ­ همرفتی میان­مقیاس که در 13 آوریل 2016 در غرب و جنوب­غرب ایران رخ داد، بررسی شد. از آن­جایی که شبیه­سازی مدل­های میان­مقیاس به انتخاب طرحواره‌های پارامترسازی فیزیکی مورد استفاده در آن حساس هستند، بنابراین با انجام آزمون­هایی، حساسیت نتایج شبیه‌سازی‌های مدل با استفاده از دو طرحوارۀ پارامترسازی خردفیزیک تامپسون و موریسون ارزیابی شد. در پیکربندی مدل از سه دامنه تو در تو استفاده شده و به­جز طرحواره­های خردفیزیک، سایر تنظیمات مدل در همه آزمون­ها مشابه هستند. مقایسۀ پهنۀ بارش روزانه به­دست آمده از شبیه­سازی­ها در دامنۀ دوم مدل با پهنۀ بارش حاصل از داده­های ماهواره­ایGPM  نشان داد که طرحوارۀ موریسون در شبیه­سازی بیشینه مقدار بارش و گسترۀ مکانی بارش روزانه نسبت به طرحوارۀ تامپسون عملکرد بهتری داشته است. همچنین مقایسۀ مقادیر بارش روزانۀ شبیه­سازی شده در دامنۀ سوم مدل، با بارش روزانۀ اندازه­گیری شده در 40 ایستگاه همدیدی واقع در منطقۀ مورد مطالعه نیز نشان­داد که دو طرحواره در حدود نیمی از میزان بارش­ها در منطقه را نزدیک به مقادیر مشاهداتی پیش­بینی کرده­اند. بررسی نمودارهایِ تغییرات زمانی مقادیر شبیه­سازی شده و مشاهدات ایستگاهی دردسترس برای برخی پارامترهای هواشناسی برای روز 13 آوریل 2016 در ایستگاه اهواز نشان داد که طبق شاخصه­های آماری محاسبه شده در ارزیابی عملکرد طرحواره­های موریسون و تامپسون، نتایج دو طرحواره خیلی به هم نزدیک است. در بخش آخر به­منظور درک بهتر ویژگی­های سامانۀ همرفتی میان‌مقیاس شبیه­سازی شده با دو طرحوارۀ خردفیزیکِ تامپسون و موریسون، چند پارامتر خردفیزیکی در دو شبیه­سازی بررسی شدند. در بررسی نیم­رخ­های قائمِ این پارامترهای خردفیزیکی از جمله غلظت­ها و سرعت‌های سقوط، تفاوت اساسی و مشهودی از شبیه­سازی با دو طرحواره مشاهده نشد. همچنین، میزان بارش حاصل از پیش‌بینی­ها قابل مقایسه بوده و اختلاف اندکی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Numerical study of the microphysics of a mesoscale convective system leads to flash flood events in the west and southwest of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azadeh Akhavan Gouran 1
  • Maryam Gharaylou 2
  • Majid M. Farahani 2
1 M.Sc. Graduate of Meteorology/ Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran
2 Faculty member /Department of Space Physics, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

This study investigated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model in the simulation of microphysical parameters of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) event. This case study occurred during 13 April 2016 over the west and southwest of Iran and resulted in a flood in these areas. For all simulations, the WRF model uses a one-way nesting for three meshes of 36, 12, and 4 km horizontal resolution, respectively. In all simulations, the data from NCEP global final analysis (FNL) on 1-degree by 1-degree grids provide initial and boundary conditions. The results obtained from the model simulations are compared with the observations. The distribution of daily precipitation from the second domain of the model outputs showed the Morrison scheme has better performance in the simulation of maximum rainfall and spatial distribution of daily rainfall than the Thompson scheme.
Comparison between the simulated daily precipitation in the third domain of all simulations and the observed daily precipitation at 40 synoptic stations in the study area shows that two schemes predict about half of the amount of rainfall in the region close to observational amounts for the mentioned day. Following, the time series of simulated values and station observations plotted for a variety of surface variables such as 2-meter temperature, relative humidity, and sea surface pressure for 13 April 2016 at Ahwaz station; it is possible to verify the model simulations for each of these parameters.
The last section investigated several microphysical parameters from the two simulations to better understand the MCS properties. In examining the vertical profile of these microphysical variables, no noticeable difference was observed from the simulation compared with the two schemes. Almost similar concentrations and fall velocities show that the precipitation results from the simulations are comparable and slightly different.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • WRF model
  • Mesoscale convective system (MCS)
  • Microphysics parameterization schemes
  • GPM
  • Microphysical parameter
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