ارزیابی عملکرد مدل SWAT در شبیه‌سازی جریان ورودی به مخزن سد جهت مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز بالادست سد زاینده‌رود)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد، مهندسی عمران گرایش مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه یاسوج

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران، مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه یاسوج

3 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.30488/ccr.2022.354749.1085

چکیده

تغییرات آب و هوایی یکی از بزرگ‌ترین چالش‌های پیش روی بشریت است که علوم مرتبط با طبیعت و محیط‌زیست را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. تغییرات در پارامترهای تأثیرگذار در تغییرات اقلیمی سبب شده است تا پاسخ‌های هیدرولوژیک حوضه‌های آبخیز تحت تأثیر قرارگرفته و این پدیده بر روی کمیت و کیفیت منابع آب سطحی همچون دریاچه‌ها، آبگیرها و مخازن سدها تأثیر می‌گذارد. امروزه توسعه و پیشرفت فناوری‌های رایانه‌ای و محاسباتی تأثیر بسزایی در مدل‌سازی‌های هیدرولوژیکی داشته است. در سال‌های اخیر مدل‌های مفهومی و فیزیکی بر اساس خصوصیات حوضه‌های آبریز برای سیستم‌های هیدرولوژیکی موردتوجه محققان قرارگرفته است. با توجه به وجود آمدن این‌گونه پیشرفت‌ها، پیچیدگی‌هایی درروند مدل‌سازی‌های هیدرولوژیکی به وجود خواهد آمده است. پیش‌بینی‌های صحیح مدیریتی در زمینه منابع آب با توجه به کمبود ذخایر آبی، از مباحث موردتوجه در نهادهای متولی مدیریت منابع آب است که باید از مدل‌های شبیه‌ساز با دقت بالا به‌منظور برآوردها و برنامه‌ریزی‌های بلندمدت استفاده کرد. با توجه به بحران و کمبود ذخایر آبی در ایران، زیر حوضه آبریز بالادست سد زاینده‌رود به‌عنوان مطالعه موردی در این تحقیق انتخاب‌شده و فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی در زیر حوضه‌های بالادست سد زاینده‌رود شبیه‌سازی‌شده و جریان ورودی به مخزن سد زاینده‌رود برآورد گردید. بدین منظور از مدل ارزیابی آب‌وخاک SWAT به‌منظور شبیه‌سازی فرایند بارش-رواناب و درنهایتبرآورد جریان ورودی به مخزن مورداستفاده قرارگرفته است. بر اساس رواناب خروجی از سه زیر حوضه بوئین-دامنه، قلعه شاهرخ-چلگرد و چادگان-چشمه شبیه‌سازی‌شده نتایج قابل قبولی برای شبیه‌سازی در سه زیر حوضه مذکور توسط مدل نشان داده شد و از جمع جبری سه رواناب جریان ورودی برآورد شد که ضرایب خطای یادشده برابر 86/0 به‌دست‌آمده است. این نتیجه نمایانگر دقت بالای مدل‌ها در شبیه‌سازی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the performance of SWAT model in simulating the inflow to the dam reservoir to deal with climate change (Case study: the catchment area upstream of the ZayandehRoud Dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohsen saboktakin 1
  • Hossein Montaseri 2
  • Saeid Eslamian 3
  • Reza khalili 1
1 Master's degree, civil engineering, water resources engineering and management, Yasouj University
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Water Resources Engineering and Management, Yasouj University
3 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity that affects the sciences related to nature and environment. Changes in factors affecting climate change affect the hydrological responses of watersheds and this phenomenon affects the quantity and quality of water resources such as lakes, reservoirs and dams. Today, the development and progress of computer and computing technologies has had a significant impact on hydrological modeling. In recent years, conceptual and physical models based on the characteristics of watersheds for hydrological systems have attracted the attention of researchers. Due to the emergence of such developments, there will be complications in the process of hydrological modeling. Correct management forecasts in the field of water resources due to the lack of water resources, is one of the topics of interest in the institutions in charge of water resources management, which should use high-precision simulator models for long-term estimates and planning. Considering the crisis and shortage of water resources in Iran, the sub-catchment upstream of Zayandeh Rood Dam was selected as a case study in this research, and the hydrological processes in the sub-basins of Zayandeh Rood Dam were simulated and the inflow to the reservoir of Zayandeh Rood Dam was estimated. For this purpose, the water and soil assessment model SWAT has been used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process and finally to estimate the inflow to the reservoir. Based on the simulated runoff from the three sub-basins of Buin-Damneh, Qala Shahrokh-Chelgerd and Chadegan-Ceshmeh, the model showed acceptable results for the simulation in the three sub-basins mentioned by the model, and it was estimated from the algebraic sum of the three inflows that the mentioned error coefficients are equal to 0.86 has been obtained. This result shows the high accuracy of the models in the simulation

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • hydrological simulation
  • rainfall-runoff simulation
  • SWAT model
  • reservoir inflow estimation
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