Climate Change Research

Climate Change Research

Projection of the change in the last spring frost and the number of frost days for the pistachio in Kerman province using the CMIP6 climate models

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ameneh Mianabadi 1
Maryam Salajegheh 2
1 Department of Ecology, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
2 PhD Student in Agrometeorology, Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
10.30488/ccr.2024.435000.1194
Abstract
In this study, the CMIP6 climate models were used to predict the change in the date of the last spring chilling and the number of chilling days during the pistachio growing season. For this purpose, 5 climate models including BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1, CMCC-CM2-SR5, GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0 were selected and the minimum temperature of these models was compared to observed values in 6 stations of Anar, Kerman, Rafsanjan, Shahrbabak, Sirjan and Zarand in the pistachio growing areas of Kerman for the base period (1990-2014). The evaluation criteria showed that among the climate models, CNRM-CM6-1 in Anar (r=0.74, ME=-0.89), Kerman (r=0.73, ME=-1.19), Rafsanjan (r=0.81, ME=- 1.88), Sirjan (r=0.75, ME=-0.43) and Zarand (r=0.74, ME=-2.71) and the GFDL-ESM4 in Shahrbabak (r=0.75, ME=1.42) performed better than the others. After determining the best model for each station, the minimum temperature was used to determine the number of chilling days and the last spring chilling (based on the 4°C threshold) in the base and future periods (near (2050-2026), middle (2075-2051), and far (2100-2076)) and for 4 scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and to evaluate the changes. The results showed that the last spring chilling will occur earlier in future than the base period and the number of chilling days will also decrease. Based on the compare means test, the change in the last spring chilling at all stations in the middle and far future and for the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is statistically significant (P_value<0.05). The change in the number of chilling days is also significant in all stations and all scenarios. Based on the results, the effects of these changes on pistachio phenological stages should be taken into consideration in providing management plans.
Keywords
Chilling
Pistachio
Kerman
Climate Change
CMIP6

Subjects

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