Climate Change Research

Climate Change Research

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on the Food Security of Selected Member Countries within the Organization of Islamic

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ebrahim Ahadzadeh 1
Azam Rezaee 1
Farhad Shirani Bidabadi 2
Ali Keramatzadeh 1
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Gorgan, Irans
10.30488/ccr.2024.474278.1241
Abstract
Although the per capita average of greenhouse gas emissions in Islamic countries is lower than the global average, examining the effects of climate change on the economies of these countries seems crucial due to their significantly higher emission growth rates compared to the global average. Therefore, in the current study, the effects of climate change on the Food Production Index (FPI) as an indicator of food security in Islamic countries were examined. This was done using CMIP6 published by the IPCC under four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic). The investigation covered three groups of countries: those with middle income, less developed countries, and oil-exporting countries until the year 2100. Based on the results, FPI exhibited an increasing trend for all three groups, with the highest average growth observed in the less developed countries group. Furthermore, according to the results of the fixed-effects model and the data fusion technique, the cultivated area of grains, gross domestic production, value added in the agricultural sector, and cumulative precipitation had positive effects. In contrast, population growth, inflation, and average temperature had negative effects on food security. Additionally, climate change exerted a negative impact on food security in all scenarios and across all three groups. Moreover, the changes in food security resulting from climate change ranged from 1% to 11%. In the OE group, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia experienced the most significant reductions in food production, with 8%, 6.6%, and 6%, respectively.The results of this study indicate that MIC, due to having the lowest growth in food security without considering climate change (1.8 units) and the highest reduction in food security due to climate change (6.3%), will face a more concerning situation compared to the other two groups. Therefore, there is a need for a greater focus on improving the capacities of these countries to reduce vulnerability and adapt to climate change, ultimately addressing vulnerabilities in food production and access.
Keywords
Food production index
Fixed Effects Model
panel data
precipitation

Subjects

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