Application of WEAP model in predicting potential evapotranspiration under climate change SSP scenarios

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 M.Sc Graduate Department of Agrometeorlogy, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Agro meteorology, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on evapotranspiration (ET) as the one of the main components of the hydrological cycle. The main purpose of this research is to project the amount of potential evapotranspiration (ETp), under RCP scenario comparing to the baseline period using the WEAP model in the selected stations of Karkhe basin, Iran. The 1999-2019 and 2020-2100 years were considered as the baseline and future periods. The projected climatic variables by KIOST-ESM and MPI-ESM1-2-LR climate models under two climate change scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 and the observed data of the selected stations in Karkheh basin were used to estimate the  for the future and. According to the outputs of the WEAP model, the potential evapotranspiration will increase by 2100. The highest increase was projected under SSP5-8.5 scenario by the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model, with amount of 89 mm in June and by the KIOST-ESM model, 73 mm in May. The lowest values were equal to 26 and -0.5 mm in the months of December and September, respectively. Correspondingly, these values under SSP2-4.5 scenario were estimated as 85.4, 64.3, 23.3 and -4.6 during June, May, December and September compared to the base period, which the latter indicated a decrease for September comparing to the baseline. Also, the amount of potential evapotranspiration in regions with temperate Mediterranean climates will experience more variations comparing to those with arid temperate climates.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. Ahmadi, H., Rostami, N., & Dadashi-Roudbari, A. 2020. Projected climate change in the Karkheh Basin, Iran, based on CORDEX models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142(1–2), 661–673. doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03335-9.
  2. Ali, A., Alizadeh, H., Tajrishy, M., & Abrishamchi, A. 2007. Water resources management scenario analysis in Karkheh River Basin, Iran, using WEAP model. Hydrological Science and Technology, 23(1), 1–12.
  3. Allen, R. G. et al. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration -guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage paper 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, ISBN:92-5-104219-5.
  4. Baazi, H., Ebrahimi, H., and Aminnejad, B. 2020. A comprehensive statistical analysis of evaporation rates under climate change in southern Iran using WEAP (Case study: Chahnimeh Reservoirs of Sistan Plain). Ain Shams Engineering, 12(2), 1339-1352.
  5. Irmak, A., & Irmak, S. 2008. Reference and crop evapotranspiration in south central Nebraska. II: Measurement and estimation of actual evapotranspiration for corn. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering-asce, 134(6), 700–715. doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9437(2008)134:6(700).
  6. Kim, J. H., Sung, J. H., Shahid, S., & Chung, E. 2022. Correction to: Future hydrological drought analysis considering agricultural water withdrawal under SSP scenarios. Water Resources Management, 36(9), 2931. doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03210-4.
  7. Kult, J. M., Choi, W., & Choi, J. 2014. Sensitivity of the snowmelt runoff model to snow covered area and temperature inputs. Applied Geography. 55, 30–38. doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.08.011.
  8. Maidment, D. R. 1993. Handbook of hydrology (p. 1142). University of Texas.
  9. Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Lewis, J., Gidden, M., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P., Reimann, S., Vollmer, M., Velders, G., Van den berg, M., Smith, S., Wang, R. 2020. The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(8), 3571–3605. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
  10. Riahi, K. et al. 2017. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, global environmental change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 42, pp. 153–168. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
  11. Ruiz-García, V. H., Asensio-Grima, C., Ramírez-García, A. G., & Monterroso-Rivas, A. I. 2023. The hydrological balance in micro-watersheds is affected by climate change and land use changes. Applied Sciences, 13(4), 2503. doi.org/10.3390/app13042503.
  12. Sieber, J. 2015. Water Evaluation and Planning System. https://www.weap21.org. accessed 14 July 2023.
  13. Song, Y. H., Chung, E., & Shahid, S. 2022. Uncertainties in evapotranspiration projections associated with estimation methods and CMIP6 GCMs for south Korea. Science of the Total Environment, 825, 153953. doi.org/10.1016 /j.scitotenv.2022.153953.
  14. Talebmorad, H., Abedi‐Koupai, J., Eslamian, S., Mousavi, S., Akhavan, S., Askari, K. O. A., & Singh, V. P. 2021. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on reference crop evapotranspiration in Hamedan-Bahar plain. International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 11(3), 333. doi.org/10.1504/ijhst .2021.114554.
  15. Yates, D., Sieber, J., Purkey, D., & Huber-Lee, A. 2005. WEAP21—A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model. Water International, 30(4), 487–500. doi.org/10.1080/ 02508060508691893.

 

 

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics