Climate Change Research

Climate Change Research

Flood risk zoning due to climate change using SWAT hydrological model in GIS environment (Case study: Gharasoo watershed, Golestan province)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Saleh Arekhi 1
samira karkaz 2
somayeh emadodin 1
1 Assistant Professor, Geography Department, Human Sciences College, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
2 MS.c Student, Human Sciences College, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
10.30488/ccr.2023.394308.1127
Abstract
The aim of this study was to predict the flood zone in the context of climate change based on the scenarios of the Fifth International Climate Change Board's assessment report in Qarahsu Basin (Golestan Province). This research consists of two phases: climatic and hydrological. In the climatic phase, daily data of minimum, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunny hours of Gorgan Hashemabad Synoptic Station in the period 2001-2020 were simulated using LARS-WG statistical model and after ensuring the efficiency of this model in simulation Construction of meteorological parameters in Gharasoo watershed of Golestan province, to investigate the impact of climate change on runoff in the study area, data of three scenarios A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (medium scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of the model HadCM3 was scaled in the period 2021-2050 with a small LARS-WG statistical model. In the hydrological phase, precipitation-runoff is simulated using the SWAT hydrological model and after calibration (from January 1, 2012 to December 29, 2016) and validation of this model (December 30, 2016 to December 29, 2018), temperature and precipitation data. The output of LARS-WG model was entered into SWAT model and the changes of runoff due to climate change in future periods compared to the base period were calculated. The results showed that according to the estimation of LARS-WG model for the studied scenarios in the future periods, the average temperature of Qarahsu watershed will increase by 0.56 to 4 degrees Celsius. The amount of precipitation also decreases by 10 to 24% compared to the base period. Finally, the flood of the study basin is zoned in GIS environment by combining the average runoff map under scenario A2, distance from the river and the shape coefficient of the basin using Fuzzy-AHP method. According to zoning, 44% is at high and very high risk.
Keywords
Risk
Flood
Climate Change
SWAT model
GIS
Subjects
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