Climate Change Research

Climate Change Research

Evaluating ERA5 Reanalysis for Climate Trend Analysis in Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mojtaba Mohammadi 1
Masoomeh Forozanfard 2
1 Assistant Professor of Desert Management and Control, Faculty of Enviromental Scinces, Planning and Sustaineble Development, University of Saravan, Saravan, Iran.
2 Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Saravan, Saravan, Iran.
10.30488/ccr.2024.458748.1218
Abstract
This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ERA5 reanalysis data for examining trends in monthly mean temperature and relative humidity in Sistan and Baluchestan province during the period 1980 to 2020. In this study, data from synoptic stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province, including Zahedan, Khash, Saravan, Irandshahr, and Chabahar, were used as reference data. Monthly temperature and relative humidity data from ERA5 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees by 0.25 degrees were also used. To spatially match the data, ERA5 pixels were selected that overlapped with the location of the synoptic stations. To evaluate the agreement between the ERA5 data and the synoptic station data, the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were used. Trend analysis of temperature and relative humidity was performed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed a positive correlation between the real and ERA5 data at the studied stations. Trend analysis showed that the dominant trend in this province is warming in most seasons, especially in winter and spring. The average winter temperature in these stations has been increasing at a rate of about 3.0 degrees Celsius per decade. This study showed that ERA5 reanalysis data is reliable for examining trends in monthly mean temperature and relative humidity in Sistan and Baluchestan. However, due to the complexities of weather patterns and the existence of data dispersion, caution is necessary in interpreting the results. The warming of winters in this region is a concern and further research is needed to understand its implications for natural and human systems.
Keywords
Data Validation Mann
Kendall Test South East of Iran Climate Change

Subjects

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