Climate Change Research

Climate Change Research

Analyzing the Relationship Between the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOIac) and Precipitation in Northwest Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Atoosa khojasteh 1
Hossein Asakereh 2
Hassan Shadman 3
1 PhD in Climatology Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
2 Professor Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
3 Researcher of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Department, Natural Resources Research Center, Zanjan Agricultural, Zanjan, Iran
10.30488/ccr.2025.514439.1274
Abstract
Precipitation is one of the most highly variable atmospheric parameters, capturing the interest of researchers due to its unpredictable timing and patterns. In this study, the variations in precipitation in the northwest of Iran were analyzed over the period of 1348 to 1397 in the Iranian calendar (equivalent to 1970–2019 in the Gregorian calendar). Considering the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on Iran's precipitation, especially in the northwest, this study investigated the relationship between the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOIac), measured in Algeria and Cairo, and the precipitation patterns. Methods such as correlation analysis, least squares regression, and cross-wavelet analysis were employed. These analyses were conducted for both positive and negative phases of the index. The results indicate a generally weak relationship between the studied index and precipitation patterns, which also holds true for the individual phases. Nevertheless, the regions most affected by the index were found to be located in the north, northwest, and northeast of the study area. Additionally, in the positive phase of the index, between 0.65% and 1% of the study area showed statistically insignificant results, whereas in the negative phase, this proportion ranged from 40% to 56%. Moreover, wavelet analysis revealed dominant fluctuations of 9–15 months during neutral conditions, 5–8 months during the positive phase, and 5–9 months during the negative phase.
Keywords
Precipitation Regression Mediterranean Teleconnection Index Correlation
Northwest

Subjects

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