Climate Change Research

Climate Change Research

Analysis of Temporal Trends and Seasonal Variability in Column-Averaged Methane Concentrations (XCH4) over the Middle East Using Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI Data during 2018–2023

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Aziz Azizpour 1
Mohsen Mirmohammadi 2
Roohollah Noori 2
Seyed Mohsen Mousavi 3
1 M.Sc. in Environmental Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
10.30488/ccr.2026.580388.1332
Abstract
Methane (CH₄) is one of the most important short-lived greenhouse gases affecting climate change, and its monitoring in energy-intensive regions is of particular importance. The aim of this research is to analyze the temporal trend and seasonal pattern of XCH₄ column concentration in the Middle East during the period 2018-2023 using Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI satellite data. In this study, daily Level 2 XCH4 data were used, and after processing in a Python environment, XCH4 values were aggregated at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. The trend of changes was then evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The results showed that XCH₄ in the Middle East during the study period has an increasing, monotonic, and statistically significant trend; its annual average increased from 1862.14 ppb in 2018 to 1918.77 ppb in 2023. The Mann-Kendall test showed Z = 9.64, p-value = 3.04×10⁻²¹, and τ = 0.75, indicating a strong and significant increasing trend over the entire study period. Sen's slope estimator and the OLS model also showed that XCH₄ in the Middle East increased by an average of about 12 to 13 ppb annually. Seasonally, the minimum mean XCH₄ was observed in winter (1876.2 ppb) and its maximum in summer (1898.3 ppb). Monthly analysis also confirmed this pattern, with the lowest value recorded in February and the highest in August–September. Additionally, annual and seasonal average maps indicated spatial heterogeneity of XCH₄ and higher values around the Persian Gulf and parts of the Arabian Peninsula. In summary, the results showed that the methane column concentration in the Middle East has followed a consistent increasing trend and a regular seasonal cycle in recent years. These findings indicate the suitable capacity of satellite monitoring for continuous observation of the temporal and spatial behavior of methane at a regional scale
Keywords
Atmospheric methane Column
averaged methane concentration Sentinel 5P/TROPOMI Trend analysis Seasonal variation Middle East
Subjects
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