نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 استاد آب و هواشناسی گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار آب و هواشناسی گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3 کارشناسیارشد آب و هواشناسی گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
In this study 31 stations were selected according to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. Climatic parameters such as rainfall Monthly and 5 temperature parameters during plant growth from October to June, for 25 years of statistical period from 1982 to 2006, as well as data on wheat yield in each station, a test run test for Data was randomized and then the reconstruction test was performed on missing and missing data. In each station, the correlation coefficient between wheat yield and climatic parameters was calculated and ultimately the model Regression for stations was used to identify effective climatic parameters in estimating wheat yield. In wheat, all stations except Gorgan station had a regression model. In wheat dryland, stations of Urmia, Tehran, Sari, Yasuj, Semnan, Khorramabad had no regression model. The regional model was also calculated for the country and compared with the station models. The yield of blue wheat showed the results of the regression model. In the eastern, central, northeastern and eastern parts of the southern part of the country, the water will fall by 20-35% reduction. In the wheat field discussion, all stations in the northwest are between 30-37%, parts of southwest and south of the country will have a yield reduction of 28-35% And the southeast and north-east half of the 47-42 will increase performance. The highest expected yield in blue wheat For Isfahan station and in rainfed wheat, the most expected performance will be for Zahedan station.