پژوهش‌های تغییرات آب و هوایی

پژوهش‌های تغییرات آب و هوایی

تغییرات تاریخی و پیش‌نگری شار تابشی و توازن انرژی سطح زمین در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
عباسعلی داداشی رودباری
استادیار اقلیم شناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
10.30488/ccr.2026.575657.1324
چکیده
با توجه به نقش کلیدی تابش‌های فرودی موج کوتاه (rsds) و بلند (rlds) در بیلان انرژی سطحی و چرخه هیدرولوژی، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی واداشت تابشی در اقلیم خشک و نیمه‌خشک ایران انجام شد. این تحقیق بر اساس تحلیل داده‌های پروژه CMIP6 انجام شد. به منظور کاهش عدم قطعیت‌های ساختاری، یک میانگین همادی چندمدلی (MMEM) از پنج مدل منتخب ایجاد شد. تغییرات تابشی در سه دوره آینده (نزدیک، میانی و دور) تا سال ۲۱۰۰ تحت دو سناریوی اجتماعی-اقتصادی SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 نسبت به دوره تاریخی (2014-1990) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. سپس داده‌ها با استفاده از روش درون‌یابی دوخطی و محاسبه بی‌هنجاری‌ تحلیل شدند. نتایج نشان داد که طی دوره تاریخی متغیرهای واداشت تابشی دارای گرادیان معکوس هستند. در دوره‌های آتی، rlds در هر دو سناریو روندی افزایشی دارد که ناشی از گرمایش تروپوسری و بازخورد بخار آب است؛ به‌طوری‌که در SSP5-8.5 و در پایان قرن، نواحی ساحلی جنوب افزایش چشمگیر ۳۰ تا ۵۰ وات بر مترمربع را نشان داده است. در مقابل، rsds رفتاری عمدتاً کاهشی یا نوسانی دارد. با این حال rsds در فلات مرکزی به دلیل خشکی ذاتی، بی‌هنجاری‌ مثبت را نشان داده است. این نتایج نشان دهنده غلبه افزایش تابش موج بلند بر تغییرات تابش خورشیدی است. بر این اساس ناترازی تابشی منجر به مثبت شدن بیلان خالص انرژی و تشدید تبخیر-تعرق می‌شود که تهدیدی جدی برای منابع آب ایران محسوب می‌شود. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که نواحی پست ساحلی بیشترین حساسیت ترمودینامیکی و ارتفاعات زاگرس و البرز نقش تعدیل‌کننده دارند. یافته‌های این مطالعه، می‌تواند در تصمیم‌گیری‌های راهبردی جهت مکان‌یابی، توسعه و ارزیابی راندمان نیروگاه‌های خورشیدی و جهت اصلاح استانداردهای طراحی اقلیمی و مدیریت انرژی ساختمان‌ها به‌طور مستقیم مورد بهره‌برداری قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تابش موج کوتاه فرودی
تابش موج بلند فرودی
چند مدلی همادی
پروژه CMIP6
سناریوهای SSP
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Historical Changes and Future Projections of Radiative Flux and Surface Energy Balance Over Iran

نویسنده English

Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari
Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده English

Surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS) and surface downwelling longwave radiation (RLDS) are fundamental drivers of the surface energy balance and the broader hydrological cycle. Recognizing their pivotal role, this study investigates surface radiative flux dynamics across the arid and semi-arid landscapes of Iran. The investigation is grounded in data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). To mitigate structural uncertainties, a Multi-Model Ensemble Mean (MMEM) was constructed using five optimally selected models. Projections of these radiative components were evaluated across three future periods (near-, mid-, and far-future) extending to 2100, utilizing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) relative to a historical baseline (1990–2014). Subsequent data analysis employed bilinear interpolation and spatial anomaly calculations. Findings indicate that during the historical period, the radiative variables exhibited an inverse spatial gradient. In future periods, RLDS shows a consistent upward trend in both scenarios, driven by tropospheric warming and water vapor feedback mechanisms. Notably, under SSP5-8.5, by the end of the century, southern coastal regions are projected to experience a substantial increase of 30–50 W m⁻². Conversely, RSDS exhibits primarily diminishing or fluctuating trends; however, positive anomalies were observed within the Central Plateau, a pattern attributed to the region’s inherent aridity. Consequently, the aggregate outcome of these shifts is the dominance of intensifying longwave radiation over variations in shortwave irradiance. The study demonstrates that this resulting radiative imbalance precipitates an enhanced positive surface net energy balance and exacerbates potential evapotranspiration, posing a severe threat to Iran’s water resources. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that low-lying coastal zones exhibit the highest thermodynamic sensitivity, whereas the Zagros and Alborz highlands play a pivotal role in modulating these radiative changes. The projections generated here offer immediate, practical value for strategic infrastructure planning. Specifically, these findings can directly inform the site selection, expansion, and efficiency forecasting of solar power facilities, while providing a critical scientific foundation for overhauling climate-responsive design standards and optimizing building energy management protocols

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Downward shortwave radiation Downward longwave radiation multi
model ensemble CMIP6 project SSP scenarios
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