نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study investigates the temporal and spatial trends of precipitation in the Amu Darya River Basin, Afghanistan, over the 44‑year period 1981–2024, using the high‑resolution CHIRPS satellite‑gauge precipitation product. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trend significance and magnitude at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Spatial heterogeneity was mapped pixel‑wise, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was used to relate precipitation changes to drought conditions. Results reveal a distinct winter‑spring precipitation regime, with March (≈81 mm) as the wettest and September (≈2 mm) as the driest month. Winter contributes the largest share (≈360 mm), followed by spring (≈280 mm), autumn (≈100 mm), and summer (≈50 mm). Annual precipitation fluctuated between ~260 and ~550 mm, showing a weak, non‑significant increasing trend (R² = 0.111, p > 0.05). However, significant increases (p < 0.05) were detected in February, April, and November, as well as for winter (p = 0.05) and autumn (p = 0.04) seasons. Spatially, trends are heterogeneous: decreasing precipitation dominates the western and southwestern lowlands, while increasing trends prevail in the central, eastern, and high‑altitude northeastern regions. The PDSI exhibited a significant positive trend (p = 0.027), indicating reduced drought severity, though interannual variability remains the dominant control. Topography strongly governs precipitation distribution, with the Upper Panj sub‑basin (7,221 m) receiving ~400 mm annually compared to ~250 mm in the Lower Kunduz sub‑basin (262 m). We conclude that while basin‑wide annual precipitation is not significantly changing, the seasonal distribution and spatial patterns are evolving – likely influenced by global warming and atmospheric circulation shifts. These findings underscore the need for adaptive water management that accounts for both temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity, particularly in transboundary water allocation and agricultural planning.
کلیدواژهها English