نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Climate change, rising temperatures, and increasing water pressure threaten agricultural sustainability in semi-arid basins by increasing evapotranspiration demand and reducing water-use efficiency. This study analyzes actual evapotranspiration (ETa), agricultural water-use instability, and resilience in the Karkheh River Basin during 2000–2024, with projections to 2050. Remote sensing data were used to derive ETa, NDVI, and water productivity (WP), while Sen’s slope and an Agro-Climatic Resilience Index (ACRI) were applied to assess trends and resilience. Future conditions were evaluated under CMIP6 scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Results showed that ETa increased from about 720 mm in 2000 to 860 mm in 2024, with a Sen’s slope of 5.8 mm per year, while vegetation and WP did not improve proportionally. Future projections indicate further increases in evapotranspiration demand and pressure on water resources. Therefore, improving water-use efficiency and adopting adaptive water management strategies are essential for sustaining agricultural resilience in the Karkheh River Basin.
کلیدواژهها English
